Niall Ferguson dismisses the elephant in the room in as much that he assumed that the subsequent peace treaty between France and Germany after a swift German victory in 1914/1915 would have been similar to that negotiated after the Franco-Prussian War 44 years before.

Had Great Britain remained neutral in 1914 the map of Europe and of the world would have changed markedly with a German victory over France:

1: Belgium having resisted would have been annexed by Germany

2: With the Belgian ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge in German hands that would put German Battleships within four hours steaming of a position from which they could bombard London.

3: Germany would end this offensive in western Europe with a fully mobilised army of some 3.25 million men and Great Britain would still have her Army of 440,000. Any move on the part of Great Britain to upgrade her military preparedness by increasing the size of her Army would be seen as a provocation by Germany.

4: Germany would annex the colonies and overseas possessions of both France and Belgium. Germany could them resume fomenting trouble in neighbouring British colonies and overseas possessions, just as she had done in South Africa during the Boer War.

In 1914 Great Britain faced the choice of fighting Germany alongside powerful allies. Had Great Britain stayed out of the war as recommended by Niall Ferguson then Great Britain and her Empire would have been destroyed within ten years. Sir Edward Grey and the rest of the British Government saw that in 1914 and acted accordingly in the best national interest of Great Britain and her Empire.