I also think a split is unlikely, but I can't say the reasons are especially cheering. Let's look at the position of deputy, for a start. They are all saying they will work with whoever the voters pick as leader. Now, democratically speaking that's all very laudable, but it does mean they are happy to make the case that privatising the power companies is essential or absolutely insane, depending who gets picked. Which rather smacks of an attitude that getting the job is more important than anything else.

And I suspect we will find the same in the lower ranks. To split, you need a set of principles that you think your party has turned against and that you believe the populous will support. If the vote turns out anything like the predictions - and it may not - I can't see how a potential splitter would think there was a groundswell for Blairism, for example.