" but speculation over what might have been is a futile exercise."

Agreed it would be if I indulged in it - my so called "speculations" are nothing of the sort they represent the declared intentions of the Germans used in an attempt to bully and intimidate a small neutral country into compliance and inaction, and the British Governments assessment of the situation very well stated by Sir Edward Grey.

"I seem to remember a recent middle-eastern leader saying he could have 20 missiles ready in 45 minutes in the event of an attack. Surely you are not naive enough to believe everything that warmongering politicians tell you?"

What that "warmongering politician" [Saddam Hussein] stated was perfectly in tune with the weapons [ex-Soviet or ex-Soviet copies] he had at his disposal combined with the chemical and biological agents he was known to possess in 1990 and may have retained in 2003. By the way Gnome I did not hear that from a "recent middle-eastern leader" I think the first time I heard that was in 1967 as part of a "Threat" Lecture related to what weapons the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries could field. The 45 minutes comes from the time the order is given to use chemical/biological weapons to the warheads actually being filled and the missile ready to fire. It was the 45 minutes that made chemical/biological weapons useless in Europe [Something I have subsequently learned from the Cold War period as more information has come to light] - due to our ability to electronically eavesdrop NATO would have know such a strike was about to be launched and Soviet/Warsaw Pact formations would have been hit by tactical nuclear weapons (More declared intent for you Gnome - a tactical nuclear strike was the automatic NATO response should the Soviets opt to use chemical or biological weapons - the Russians told Saddam that in 1990 which is why he did not use them during "Desert Storm" [Not speculation])

I don't believe what any politician tells me - ever.