I am pretty certain that if at any time in the last 50 years a referendum had been held in England, or indeed in the whole of the United Kingdom, there would have been a majority for an end to the Union with Northern Ireland. But that's not how politics work, in any country.

I also believe that if the Republican movement had managed to wage a dedicated and sustained campaign using exclusively non-violent methods, that would have got us to the present situation and beyond at least as quickly. I think it would very likely have meant many deaths, but probably fewer than in the campaign that was waged.

But picking over the bones of the past is not what needs to be done now. We could argue forever about what would have been best, and about what might have been possible, and there's no way ever to reach a firm and unquestioned resolution of the argument.

It may well be that within a generation or less there will no longer be a majority of people within the Six Counties who want to retain within the Union. I think most ordinary English people will be very pleased indeed when that happens. But as Jimmy C points out, that could just be the beginning of a new phase of Troubles.

The important thing is not ending partition as such, it is ending the division that underlies it and that brought it about, and that preserves it. I don't mean, of course, that the religious variations should be swept away. What has to gois the absurd idea that differences of religion, and the cultural differences that accompany these must somehow determine peoples sense of nationality.

One thing that might make this easier is the present condition of the English Conservative Party. A major factor in deepening that division for more than a century has been the way that certain elements within that party have exploited the existing division by "playing the Orange Card". This has been repeatedly done cynically, and without the slightest regard for the well-being of any of the people of Northern Ireland. But the Orange card is no longer a card that counts for much in England - and by the time the Conservatives can realistically hope to be back in power it will count for even less.

But above and beyond those kind of considerations there is the challenge to the people of Ireland to heal the historic division. And that means that, whatever may have been the case in the past, violence of any kind, even in the face of provocation can no longer play any positive role.