The old time republican party line was that the republic needed a select voter base to keep the rabble out. To get the "little people's vote" Patriotism, religious values and family values has succeeded until Clinton.
Bush II only succeeded in disillusioning the Christian right.
Obama inspired the greatest gun sales this country has ever seen by the scared and bigoted.

Sometimes you make a new friend from shared dislikes. You assume the shared likes and loves would match but that's an assumption.
Shared hatred trumps shared loves.

If America has more recently destitute unemployed people full of rage and hatreds who registered to vote, then actually I believe Trump gets an advantage ONLY if the turnout exceeds 72%

The anti government crowd will believe anything.
The educated believe in conventional wisdom.

Voter suppression is in play in a big way.
The conventions are more meaningful and the turn out decides the game.