"Teribus asks why I fear that Trump will do something rash in Cuba. When U.S. Presidents have problems at home, they often shore up their popularity by sending troops overseas - and it works. The Bush war in Iraq is what got "W" elected to a second term."

Exactly. Thatcher got re-elected in 1983, despite the Tory administration being a total economic basket case, on the back of the Malvinas "war." She managed it again in '87 after beating the miners (and wrecking our manufacturing industry), but that's another story. Orwell foretold it well in "1984." A good strong government needs a constant enemy without. He wasn't being cynical back in 1948, was he. A scenario in which Trump is such an impending failure at home, which he's almost certain to be, driving him to irresponsible adventurism overseas, is hardly improbable, is it?