So we've plucked an approximate two-year figure out of the air. Justify that on any basis you can, Nigel. May offered that (and may have secretly offered more) because even she realises that compromise is necessary. If we walk away without a proper negotiated divorce settlement it WILL make trading conditions with the EU much more difficult. The EU is big enough to endure a black hole in its finances if push comes to shove and has a vested interest in demonstrating to its members that leaving comes at a high price (and so it should). She did not make that offer, "goodwill" or not, out of the goodness of her heart. She has a vested interest in paying as little as possible without getting EU backs up. We get that. That's her job. But that isn't zero pounds. The EU negotiators also know that they're not getting 90 billion or anything like it. The main block at the moment is that May is running scared of her own hardliners. We don't know the half of it.

And watch out for those financial institutions uprooting from London to the EU. The devastating consequences of that for our service economy is, well, still a bit under the carpet at the moment.