None whatsoever, Richard. It's only when we put together hundreds of studies like this that patterns begin to emerge. We can also compare style and various other components of a song with other songs that we know were written by known authors. It's mainly about possibilities and probabilities. These people in the towns who were passing them on to the printers quite likely came from a great variety of backgrounds. All of this of course is taken alongside detailed studies of how the oral tradition works, not just the print tradition.

Do remember that my 95% is only my opinion, but it is based upon many many studies of every oral version and every printed version of hundreds of songs. For every song in Marrow Bones, Wanton Seed and Southern Harvest and others this is what I have done. Others like Jim are well entitled to their opinion, but I doubt they have done this depth of study.

Things haven't changed that much over the centuries. Songs have always LARGELY been written by song writers, people with some skill and imagination (okay of varying degrees) rather than people who have experienced the events within the songs. And I'm talking about across all genres here, in the western world at least.