The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #162855   Message #3901020
Posted By: Raggytash
22-Jan-18 - 06:25 AM
Thread Name: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
Several other phrases in that BBC report Steve, things like:

"That's the argument of Lord Jim O'Neill, the former Conservative Treasury minister and Remain supporter" So not at all biased then.

"He said Britain's growth forecasts are likely to be upgraded as China, the US and Europe show increased activity" So much of the rest of the world is also increasing.

""As well as this crucial fact, the rest of the world is also doing way better than many people would have thought a year ago, so it makes it easier for the UK." So the rest of the world has an improved forecast.

"A recent assessment by Cambridge Econometrics for the Mayor of London suggested that growth across the UK could be on average 3% lower by 2030 than it would have been if Britain remained within the EU's single market and customs union." A counter-argument from an organisation using robust, empirical evidence.

""Now, my own view is if we go for a really hard Brexit or a no-deal Brexit, we'll probably suffer more than that 3%." So there will be a hit.

"But if it is only 3%, what's going on with the rest of the world - helping us - and with productivity improving, that will easily dwarf a 3% hit over 13 years, easily." Two things here, one an assumption that the rest of the world will help us and two the recovery period is 13 (THIRTEEN) years.

"Because of course, in principle, I share the views of many that Brexit is a really weird thing for the UK to impose on itself from an economic perspective." Even O'Neill thinks Brexit is damaging economically

"He said that the "Brexiteers are going to be like the cat with the cream. They're like 'there you go, told you so', which of course is ridiculous". Well he got that bit right.

"Lord O'Neill said that major sectors of the economy that are closely linked to the EU, such as car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, were still facing significant threats because of the government's proposals to leave the customs union and the single market." Aha, so everything in the garden is not so rosy.

"Virtually every major place I can think of, [with the] possible exception of us, are all sharing in it at the same time. World trade - just when everybody's trying to write it off - has actually risen sharply." So the rest of the world is doing quite well, but we're not.