The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #162855   Message #3906722
Posted By: DMcG
19-Feb-18 - 01:00 PM
Thread Name: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
Subject: RE: BS: Post Brexit life in the UK
IMF predictions of an immediate post-referendum recession failed to come to pass.

I know I will be accused of revisionism, and it is too late to get this straightened out, but believe or not the IMF did not make predictions of an immediate post-referendum recession. Bear with me! There WERE such predictions, but they were entirely the Remain campaigners abusing what the IMF actually said, which, if you read it, is stuffed to the gunnels with 'may's, and 'uncertainty' and 'a risk of' and every other indication that these were guidance figures, not some oracle saying what must inevitably come to pass. Which, naturally, is exactly the misleading way that the remain campaign decided to use it. I do not excuse the Remain camp for that. It is understandable because caveats are frowned on in campaigns, so a clear message is preferred even when is it a distortion, but it is still a stupid way of proceeding.

Why that matters is that the 'Chicken Little' analogy is not really applicable. It was heavily caveated last time (with the assumptions made and uncertainties listed), and the latest version is also caveated.