Do you think their assessment wrong? Why?

The second question presupposes that you know the answer to the first. I am not going to be drawn into that futile argument.

I have said on a number of occasions already that there is an obvious element of doubt in 'their assesment'. There is no point in me saying it again but, once more, if they were certain it would move from being very likely to being absolutely sure. The lack of alternative argument fails to conclusively prove anything.