As Kipling put it:

I reckon there's more things told than are true.
And more things true than are told!


Where something is true or not is connected to who bothers to report it. There has been a lot of things happening over the last week and, as a media story, it is very little different to many things over the last year. But you will see, if you look a little closer, that the argument was more about what is and is not speculation, rather than whether this is a particularly good analysis. I have already admitted I do not have the data to determine that. What I am fairly confident of, though, is that simply calling it speculation is mistaken.

And the answer to your question "so why would anyone not want a trade deal with a major economy finally available for free trade" is there are many possible reasons. Just use your imagination and I am sure you can think of some. But to give you just one: there are other costs, like transportation. It might be still cheaper to sell your goods elsewhere.