Guesswork it may well be Nigel but, judging by the consistency of the findings, it seems to be very accurate. I would trust it over blind optimism but you already know that. What has been happening here is that every time a new study predicts an output it has been negative. There has not been a single study that predicts a positive outcome. Not a one. I find that disturbing and no amount of saying it'll be alright on the night will help to allay those fears. Surely you can understand that?