OK, this is entirely subjective, but I'd be interested in hearing everyone's view on this one.

After the last few days I feel we have moved out of the stage where a 'no-deal' was basically a bravado-threat on both the UK and EU sides, into a very real chance of it happening. Using the informal idea of probability in everyday use, I would put the position at something like 30% no-deal, 70% deal.

What are your judgements?