Perhaps it is also necessary to remind people that every business of any size has forecasting as a fundamental part of its business plan, despite the inherent uncertainty in any forecast. The alternative, in business terms, is a shop ordering a pile of clothes to be produced without making any attempt to estimate how many they will sell. You may be wrong, but you make the estimate. Every business does it, even if it a local café deciding how many loaves to order.


We know what forecasting is, and its uncertainities. These uncertainties are no justification for walking blindly by refusing to make any estimate at all. You make a your forecast and state what assumptions you are making and where you think the risk of errors is greatest. It is a well trodden path.