https://unherd.com/2018/11/even-superforecasters-dark-brexit/

Predictions are hard, especially about the future, as Niels Bohr may have said. But that doesn’t stop people making them.

Except:"He had nearly 300 pundits make an average of 100 predictions each, and then saw how well they did over the coming months."

"What he found was that pundits’ calibration, on average, was no better than random guessing – or, as Tetlock described it, “than a dart-throwing chimpanzee”.

That sez all you need to know on the subject!