So, Nigel. You tell us what is most likely to happen. Preferably with some research to back it up. Has anything changed in the last two and half years to make us believe your scenarios are more likely to happen than those of the experts?

I do not usually defer to experts so strongly but when they all seem to agree I think I still believe them above a few posters to a folk music web site and a right wing loudmouth. Unless of course you can demonstrate why I should not.