The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #3987532
Posted By: Bonnie Shaljean
15-Apr-19 - 02:35 PM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Although May has repeatedly talked the hard talk about allowing no-deal to remain on the table (and it is still the default scenario), according to those in her "inner circle", her bottom-line worry is the breakup of the union. And an Irish border poll is a real possibility, even a likelihood, if Britain leaves without an agreement in place. (I don't know why the DUP don't take that threat more seriously, considering the likely outcome under such circumstances. But they're good deniers, and totally blinkered.) You can bet Scotland wouldn't be far behind.

May's private illuminati (whoever they are - or were as of 4th April) have the following to say. Stay tuned.

- - -

"No-deal is better than a bad deal" was Theresa May's mantra for two years, making clear that Britain would walk away from negotiations with the EU if necessary. Her statement after the marathon cabinet meeting on Tuesday night, however, put paid to that. In a move which threatened to split her party - always something she had sought to avoid - Mrs May dramatically changed strategy and announced she would seek a deal with Labour support.

What changed her mind? I have been told by government insiders and those close to the prime minister that the answer is the UK union. One of her inner circle said: 'She's fixated on the union. No-deal clearly puts huge strain on the Irish border and the consequence is that a border poll becomes a real possibility. She thinks it would be high risk, and if it succeeded there would be a great impetus to Scotland. It could be that serious in terms of the breakup of the UK.'

Two other government sources told Sky News they believed the union was the decisive factor in Mrs May's thinking. One said: 'It was the union. The prospect of direct rule and some of the decisions that would need to be made in that situation are very unpalatable.' Another source added that the prospect of a border poll in Northern Ireland was 'very real' and something that other cabinet ministers were also concerned about...

In January, shortly before cancelling her second meaningful vote, Theresa May told the House of Commons: 'To those who think we should reject this deal in favour of no deal because we cannot get every assurance we want, I ask what a no-deal Brexit would do to strengthen the hand of those campaigning for Scottish independence or indeed of those demanding a border poll in Northern Ireland. Surely that is the real threat to our Union.'

To those familiar with her thinking, the impression is that the prime minister has become increasingly swayed by this argument.

4th April 2019