The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570 Message #3993393
Posted By: DMcG
22-May-19 - 10:26 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Unlike 'first past the post' this shows that in most regions, a 37% vote is likely to receive much more than 37% recognition in terms of seats (66% in regions with only 3 seats, 60% in regions with 5 seats)
That's a good point, Nigel, though I am not sure about the first past the post part, since that allocates 100% of the seat to the highest percentage vote, even if that is 50% + one vote, which is the less representative possible before actually giving the seat to a minority of the voters.
But the general point is well made and often overlooked. The voting percentage is - for practical purposes - a continuous variable, whereas the number of seats, whether one or ten, is a discrete quantity. It follows that except by a fluke, under any voting scheme whatever, there will be a degree of mismatch between the percentage of votes and the percentage of seats. All the complicated proportional systems are aimed at reducing the mismatch, but that is difficult and is always a compromise in some fashion.
The YouGov polls consistently rate the Brexit Party higher than other polls, often by around 5%. That matters, and where the 5% ends up also matters. I think we will wait for the results before we get too carried away …
Last time I understand Farage and UKIP got 22 seats. At the time, Brexit was really of interest only to nerds. COnsequently, I would be surprised if the Brexit Party did not get considerably more, but it would, for me, have to be 28 or above to be particularly noteworthy.