The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570 Message #3994098
Posted By: DMcG
27-May-19 - 01:29 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Let's not forget these are Europe-wide elections. I think this clip from the Guardian has it about right:
A more complicated, ad hoc, but still fairly comfortable pro-European, mainstream majority is, naturally, a somewhat less exciting narrative than a tidal wave of populism sweeping away the foundations of the EU. But it looks like that is the outcome of these elections.
Taking a more parochial view, the Brexit Party has undoubtedly done well, and it looks like they will reach at least 29 or 30 seats. That is at the top end of my estimates (which were based on recalling UKIP had 22 seats rather than the actual 24, but let's not quibble.).
To me, that says the future path of the U.K. now rests on the anonymous, probably Tory, MP who is genuinely certain that to leave with no deal would be a disaster for the country but also is from an area which has just voted for the Brexit Party in large numbers. Such an MP is also probably aware that if his or her sincere belief in the problems of a no deal come to pass, the Brexit Party voters would blame the MP, not themselves.
What these MPs choose to do will be critical.