The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570 Message #3994117
Posted By: Steve Shaw
27-May-19 - 05:45 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
The turnout was under 37%, just about half of the referendum turnout. Any analysis should include that in the reckoning, especially by those who would like to view this as another referendum on brexit. Trying to make your case by counting seats is far less safe than counting the numbers who voted for remain parties versus leave parties, the latter being far more in sync with what we did in the referendum. Even if you count all the Tory votes as leave (unsafe) and all the Labour votes as remain (less unsafe but still a bit too blunt), it's clear that leave would struggle in another referendum. Which is precisely why leave don't want one, whatever burbling you hear from them about its "betraying democracy," etc. Basically, what seems to have happened is that the Brexit party mopped up almost all the Ukip vote plus a few disaffected Tory leavers and probably far fewer disaffected Labour leavers, whereas the remain protest vote went to the Greens and the LibDems. A lot of protest voting on a low turnout informs little about the way politics will go in the future.