The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #4002764
Posted By: Iains
31-Jul-19 - 10:32 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
The Central Bank of Ireland has sounded off about potential ‘cliff-edge’ risks in the event of a no-deal, no-transition Brexit:

    “The main outstanding source of risk to financial stability in Ireland stems from a worse-than-expected macroeconomic shock. This could arise if the expected negative impact through trade channels is compounded by a sharp increase in uncertainty and a fall in confidence, with knock-on effects to Irish employment, incomes and investment. Ireland’s relatively acute exposure to Brexit may also negatively alter investor sentiment towards Irish assets, with adverse implications for financing conditions of an already relatively indebted private sector. Given the extent of direct and indirect exposures, this would result in unanticipated losses for the domestic financial system.”

The Central Bank forecasts that in a No Deal scenario Irish economic output could be approximately 6% lower in 2020. In the understated language of central bankers they warn of

    “… severe financial market dislocation and have potential knock-on effects for financial stability in Ireland.

Yesterday’s third quarterly report report from the bank predicts there will be around 34,000 fewer jobs by the end of next year and more than 100,000 fewer jobs over the medium term compared to their forecast in the event of no deal. The Irish workforce is only two and a quarter million – one fifteenth the size of the UK. This would be like the UK losing 1.5 million jobs, almost 5% of the workforce…

Intransigence costs jobs!