The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #166646 Message #4016016
Posted By: Iains
29-Oct-19 - 11:59 AM
Thread Name: BS: climate crisis - how do we go from here?
Subject: RE: climate crisis - how do we go from here?
Matt Milton The point I make is that, having dealt with reams of geolgical data all my working life, I have learnt that before you utilize the data you need to know what it actually represents. Climate change data is of variable accuracy. Some manually collected data is accurate, some satellite data is not always what it seems. Accurate climate data manually collected goes back nominally to the 17thcentury. Paleo clmatic data is by proxies of variable accuracy. The story of Dobson's photometer and the ozone hole is quite telling. Uk death statisics are reasonably accurate Indian death statistics for a given cause probably far less accurate. I cannot prove this assertion, it just seems quite likely.How much do you believe , what conclusions can be drawn? As old programmers are wont to say BS in, BS out! For climate science raw data of variable validity is often massaged, obviously for "good Reason". Such modification when input into models generate further modification. Wherein lies the truth? Acedemia lives on grants. Who gives a grant to have research concluding "No Problem? Academia is skewed and I am sceptical. I quoted those raw figures in my previous post to demonstrate a point.
We are told by the IPCC that:"Despite numerous problems associated with estimates of globally coherent, secular changes in sea level based on tide gauge records, we conclude that it is highly likely that sea level has been rising over the last 100 years There is no new evidence that would alter substantially the conclusions of earlier assess-ments regarding the rate of change Our judgement is that The average rate of rise over the last 100 years has been 1 0 2 0 mm yr ' There is no firm evidence ol accelerations in sea level rise during this century (although there is some evidence that sea level rose faster in this century compared to the previous two centuries) As to the possible causes and their specific contributions to past sea level rise, the uncertainties are very large, particularly for Antarctica However in general it appears that the observed rise can be explained by thermal expansion of the oceans and by the increased melting ol mountain glaciers and the margin ot the Greenland ice sheet Sept. 2019 IPCC “We need to take immediate and drastic actions – already next year,” In 2007, they predicted a 59 centimetres rise by the end of the century. But Antarctica is melting faster than expected, and new forecasts are now predicting a 110cm rise if current greenhouse gas emissions levels do not change. The current man-made sea rise is 16cm, but analyses show that the increase is accelerating sharply. Without a reduction in global emissions, the increase at the end of this century would be ten times faster than in the last century. In the worst-case scenario, sea levels could even be 5.4 metres higher in 2300, compared to sea levels today. Yet tide gauge records at Newlyn the Ordnance Datum for England show Below a virtual straight line trend. Prior to about 1830 all tidal data is by proxies of varying validity so graphs going back centuries need treating with a degree of "Caution" With Newlyn it is only an assumption that the ground is stable and the datum point is fixed. Prior to accurate surveying again proxy data must be used. https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/image41.png The original data is here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01490419.2015.1121175 We left the little ice age around 1850. I wonder how long it takes the oceans to respond by way of thermal expansion? Even ocean temperature measurements are not always what they seem, as shown below https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190717142639.htm The above takes no account of ocean currents and they show significant temperature variation. I know first hand if you walk 100m down the beach/desert to the sea in the Namib desert the air temperature drops significantly due to the Benguela current. I do not have an issue with climate change, I have an issue with scare stories and blaming everything entirely on the anthropogenic component.