The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #166858 Message #4020488
Posted By: Iains
20-Nov-19 - 11:31 AM
Thread Name: Folklore: Rumpelstiltskin, thousands of years old?
Subject: RE: Folklore: Rumpelstiltskin, thousands of years old?
It is always useful to apply scientific methods to a study, in fact it is essential. How meaningful it is depends upon not only what questions are asked, but also how they are phrased. My feeling is that for such a phylogenetic study to be valid the data base being consulted would have to be, not only reasonably comprehensive, but also correct. I suspect the study would fail to be meaningful due to a failure on both counts.
I would place it's validity in the same category as polling. Many polls make assumptions, history frequently proves them to be wrong. By the same token predictions by economists on the economy are rarely correct.
( A recent working paper by Zidong An, Joao Tovar Jalles, and Prakash Loungani discovered that of 153 recessions in 63 countries from 1992 to 2014, only five were predicted by a consensus of private-sector economists in April of the preceding year.) I would not discredit such studies, as proposed, but I would take their conclusions with extreme caution.