The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #167383 Message #4036568
Posted By: Donuel
28-Feb-20 - 09:31 AM
Thread Name: BS: Financial concerns big or small
Subject: RE: BS: Financial concerns big or small
I was in Finance in my twenties (I left for ethical reasons and the firm went bust later) and my wife is a Phd senior health economist for the Federal Government.
America will not shut down like China and Japan. Only China can. Schools will not close before Summer. When more people are outside and not in rooms, the contagion will SLOW> Cooler heads will prevail. The confusion and uncertainty here is due to leadership. As new rules become apparent the economy will settle. Much of yeterday's reaction was from automated sell off triggers. When humans are back in charge things will improve. Lots of refinancing will happen for large corporations with debt. Long term this will last over a year but corporations are in good shape. Money has no where else to go but here. The short term will be a challenge but if you are moderately prepared you should only be inconvienenced. Shortages will only increase demands. If you are wealthy do not not buy the dips. Wait a month. Travel and leisure will suffer more than food. Take a 20 year postion that seems good to you for your kids but don't risk it all.
Now the human toll: It will be spread out as to seem less severe than it may be in reality. Even 1919 fatality rates are doubled in estimations. Mass hysteria seems like somthing out of your hands but your own confidence makes a differnce. We all know for whom the bell tolls and the sadness of grim times. In short this is not Armeggedon unless an irrational leader sabotages our recovery - which is not impossible but unlikely.
If anyone Says they know the bottom or that this will disappear, they are liars.
btw the firm that went bust was Bear Stearns (BS) which is funny to me.