Tony Seba - predicts - The video is 1 hr long. So not many will get to the end. But he has several messages:

1) When several technologies come together at a price, the adoption isn't linear, it is S shaped. With rapid mid 80%. eg a picture of NY horse-drawn vehicles with 1 ICE to ICEs with one Horse-drawn - 13 years. iPhone/Android 2007 - 13 years and where are we on that curve?

2) The convergence of electric vehicles (EV), batteries, computing silicon, AI, cloud/internet, autonomous vehicles (AV) have been coming together and he predicts peak oil in 2021. Which, who cares if he is 3 years out, or 5 - the juggernaut is coming! We see the hype, the reality will follow. And it will happen quickly, prices are already near right.

3) by 2030 60% of cars will be AV EV Taxi, in the US anyway. And the cost will favour their use.

4) there will only be 2 (maybe 3) systems, think iPhone/Android, Mac/PC, Tory/Labour (SNP which is disruptive, ne c'est pas), Reps/Dems. Others please specify.

Of course my prediction is that when we are all dependent on 5G, AV Taxi, etc all it will take is another disruptive factor, like:

A) COVID-19 the Sequel - maybe but that may accelerate home-working, pizza delivery by AV eg. Amazon have ordered 100,000 EV vans and maybe they will eventually serve as drone hubs (my fear).

B) Solar flares/coronal mass ejections (& I don't mean vomit or diarrhea!) - it will happen and we don't know when. I worry about the back-up plans - or lack thereof, once we depend on 3/4G (5G is more susceptible). And panic will be all to obvious, look around.

Have a nice day y'all...........................