The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #167208   Message #4039769
Posted By: Iains
15-Mar-20 - 06:49 PM
Thread Name: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
I always prefer to go to the original sources sources for my data, As I have said previously the figures are obtained by the government at 0900 and published at 1400 For those that do not like the way the figures are itemised and presented I suggest you take the issue up with Gov UK Public Health. At the base of their web page is the following:

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I always endeavour to post accurate data and unlike some I usually offer links.

The official government figures below clearly show the escalation and the staged government response.and can be correlated with date, numbers infected and deaths. These are raw figures and   the rationale behind the testing regime is in the link below, but inevitably it has an element of hit and miss. Howvever it has captured the basics of the severity and spread. It gives a crude mortality of about 2.5% but that is only of those tested and positive. Acute bed occupancy is quoted as averaging 90%. This leaves little slack for a sudden epidemic. There is a vector of the asymptomatic that can only be modelled with unknown accuracy and they play no part in the crude mortality ststistics, but they pose an obvious danger to those most at risk. ie the70+(like myself) asthmatics, diabetics etc etc.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-initial-investigation-of-possible-cases/investigation-and-initial-clinical-management-of-possible-cases-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus-wn-cov-infection#interim-definition-possible-cases
(the above will not link)
Official source   
GOV.UK
Guidance
Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK

Date          + Test    Deaths   Total tests
1                 23            0        
2                 40            0        
3                 51            0        13911
4                 85            0        16574
5                 115          0        17968
6                 161          1        20338
7                 206           2        21460
8                 273           2        22513
9                 319           3        24950
10               373           6        26261
11               456           6        27476
12               590           8        29764
13               798           10        32771
14               1140        21        37746
15               1372        35        40279