The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #167208   Message #4039851
Posted By: Iains
16-Mar-20 - 06:14 AM
Thread Name: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
@Mr Red. Thanks for that graph. As you say, early days! By the end of April it will be a vastly changed world. With the asymptomatic carriers all   impersonating typhoid Mary the spread will be inexorable. A shortage of bogrolls is a harbinger of a drastically altered reality that people are very slow to wake up to. We are either being fed a line(unlikely) or governments are quietly shitting themselves. Conservatively the numbers are doubling every 4 daysin the UK. If front line care workers follow anything closely resembling the wider population we are in a world of hurt within a couple of weeks.
Several weeks ago the UK government suggested that at its peak 6.5million of the workforce would be ill. For the sake of argument double it for the entire population 13 million. If the projected 20% need to be hospitalised that is 2.6 million at peak. No health service can cope with those figures. Hardly surprising the projections are not headlined!
But the usual caveats apply. Just like climate change graphs, the above is based on projections. As is the crude mortality rate of 3+%.
Most say that allowing for skewed testing and collation figures 1% is a more realistic projection. But like anything else you have to work with the data you have. Absolute accuracy can only happen after the event and even that is very questionable. But it is a sobering thought that it is approximately ten times more lethal than flu that kills roughly 17000 per year. Obviously at the time of peak infection the mortality rate will rocket due to demand outstripping supply. The arguments as to who is entitled to what in the way of care is discussed at length both by UK gov and the wider world for those that wish to look rather thamn nitpick. Below is a starter for 10!

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/09/covid-19-triage-in-a-pandemic-is-even-thornier-than-you-might-think/
(The comments include my meagre contribution)