actually my graph is still not the right picture. The Gov figures & graphs similarly are listing the totals to date. What is needed for analysis is total suffering at the moment because that demonstrates the chances you will meet someone infectious. Allowing for those that don't show appreciable symptoms, but still infectious, you could double any number. But at a rough try 2000 germ carriers in a population of 66 million is not bad, until you factor in full commuter buses and trains. Hence the work at home advice. I have tried taking into account 14 days infectiousness, but the larger numbers are all in that timeframe, and smaller numbers won't give a good picture either.

My advice, in this context (trust me), is never trust a fart, and don't sit on a loose stool.