PFR you were the last person on my mind.
I tried to make the point not veryclearly that potentially the error bar on all the estimates is quite large. The data is patchy and some of doubtful validity. The superforecasting techniques apparently used by the government is supposedly a little more accurate forecasting tool that other techniques.
The over riding concern is to balance the needs of patients, the NHS and economy. The intention is not stop infection but control   the rate of spread. It is not an easy task as letting the economy sink into the ground also has an impact on mortality figures down the road. If facilities are swamped, pensioners will go to the wall, not because they are exopendable but because they will tie up vital resources for a time period that would probably treat 2 younger fitter patients.
These decisions are not easy and far from clear cut. This is completely outside the normal realms os experience and events require judgement calls on the fly. They will not all be correct when studied with hindsight. That is life.