"it is uncertain whether earlier intervention in care homes (or more PPE) would have greatly reduced the casualty numbers."

Sorry Nigel this statement is abject nonsense.

Had the PPE required been available, had the information regarding the virus been available earlier, if the carers had more reliable information, if the government had done more to prevent the spread of the virus of course the casualty numbers would have been lower.

I think you are trying to excuse the inexcusable.