There is a difference between: "it is uncertain whether earlier intervention in care homes (or more PPE) would have greatly reduced the casualty numbers."

And: "the casualty numbers would have been lower."

I think you are trying to excuse the inexcusable.

I am not trying to excuse anything. Just pointing out the arrant nonsense posted by Steve Shaw, and presumably accepted, without question, by those who feel that, whatever they do, the government cannot be doing the right thing.