The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #167690   Message #4051705
Posted By: DMcG
10-May-20 - 05:41 PM
Thread Name: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
Subject: RE: BS: UK thread, Politics and political
But he didn't say 81% would get it, as I read that quotation. He said In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures ... In such scenarios, given an estimatedR0of 2.4, we predict 81% ...

So 81% if the R0 cannot be brought down by control measures. That is quite a different thing to saying 81% will get it.