As I say, now the the ERG appears to be in favour of the deal, the arithmetic has changed. Until then, it was quite feasible the deal fell if a substantial part of the ERG group and Labour (plus SNP and others) voted against. Now the ERG appears settled in favour, the risk of no deal is a lot lower. We might get some clue in an hour or so whether it would have fallen without Labour - or we may not, I suspect it will not be that clear.