The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #168430   Message #4127944
Posted By: DMcG
04-Dec-21 - 01:03 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
So, basically, it was a win for the Conservative party with over 50% of the vote.

All parties have their statements for public consumption, Nigel, and this is the Conservatives. They all try to present themselves in the best possible light.

But I was trying to get beyond that. Imagine yourself in the Conservatives Election planning meeting. What are they saying amongst themselves, that is not for public consumption? What runes can they read?

Well, they could say we got over 50% so there is nothing to be discussed. Let's all go home and meet up again after the next by election.

I don't think that is likely. These are some of the messages I think they will take from it.

* There was a lot of 'doorstep depression' with Johnson and the party, leading to a fair number of potential supporters not coming out to vote. That needs work.

* Labour, by itself, does not look strong enough to greatly damage us. Sure, some seats will probably go to them, but it does not look as if it enough to seriously inconvenience the Conservatives.

* An informal pact between LibDem and Labour is if anything more likely than before because it looks very likely a lot of LibDem voters were prepared to lend their vote to Labour. If the upcoming election shows that Labour voters are prepared to lend theirs to LibDems, we could have a substantial problem here. That informal alliance does seem to have damaged us and seats with majorities of a small number of thousands could easily fall to such a pact. Tactically, we need to discourage this in any way we can. Letting Labour think they can win on their own helps us. Equally, anything we can do to prevent a formal pact is desirable.

* The sizable vote for Reform UK is a significant threat. It could split the voters. We need to find a way to neutralize this. Reform UK has too few recognisable figures to operate well at a national level, so is very unlikely to actually gain power except in one or two seats, but it could certainly peel off a percentage of Tory voters.