Revisiting my mythical Conservative election planning office, last seen after the Bexley by election, I think one of the things that will really scare them is that it looks like 12% or so of Labour voters were prepared to vote LibDem to get the Conservatives out. So in both of those by elections, there has been substantial and effective tactical voting.    Had Labour voters not doe so, and the LibDems lost, LibDem voters in places like Bexley might have felt cheated and not loaned theirs to Labour on another occasion. But they did, so tactical voting is looking alive and well.

I had a look yesterday and 186 or so Conservative MPs have a margin of 15,000 votes or less. Expect some very worried MPs ...