The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #171068   Message #4140720
Posted By: Stilly River Sage
30-Apr-22 - 07:05 PM
Thread Name: BS: Long Night in Ukraine - Feb. 23, 2022
Subject: RE: BS: Long Night in Ukraine - Feb. 23, 2022
The link to Russia cutting off gas to Bulgaria and Poland was moved here from the war crimes thread due to protest - it doesn't really fit here either, but it doesn't need a whole new thread.

And researching the topic it looks like European countries have been looking over their shoulder at Russia for a long time, working out other fuel options. From The Economist:
The immediate effect of Russia’s latest move, which the eu has described as being a breach of contract, is limited in scope. Poland’s imports, of 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year, and Bulgaria’s, of 3 bcm, together account for just 8% of total eu imports. Poland’s contract with Russia was due to expire in December anyway, so the revenue Russia loses from breaching it is small. And although Bulgaria and Poland both relied on Russia for most of their gas imports, they may be able to cope without, says Xi Nan of Rystad Energy, a consultancy. Poland should start receiving gas from Norway in October. Nearby regasification terminals could help it import more liquefied natural gas (lng). Bulgaria is expected to start importing Azeri gas via Greece later this year.

Germany and Italy are most vulnerable as far as the volume they import from Russia, but that isn't their only or even largest source.
But Moscow is offering a compromise. Buyers would open two accounts with Gazprombank (a lender that is not under sanctions). They would pay euros into the first, and ask the bank to convert the sum into roubles and deposit the money into the second account, which would then be wired to Gazprom.

Many European countries dislike the plan, which would look as though they were giving in to Russian bullying and risks creating legal headaches. They will fall into three groups. One, which includes Belgium, Britain and Spain, imports little or no gas directly from Russia, and may refuse to compromise. Another group includes big buyers such as Germany and Italy, which will struggle to replace imports quickly; they may take the deal. A third set of waverers includes countries that are only partially dependent on Russia, and may also have contracts that are soon to expire.

Even this situation would create uncertainty. One country being cut off could have knock-on effects on others, for instance if gas transits through it to other places.

The result of a full-scale shutdown to Germany could lead to a global recession, according to the paper.