I suspect that Johnson will survive this no-confidence vote and I suspect that it has been called now to ensure his survival.

If, as expected, the conservatives are hammered in the forecoming Wakefield by-election all those members with small majorities will be concerned for their future and would possibly support a no-confidence motion.

However, once he has survived one, another cannot be called for 12 months. Thus Johnson can be seen to not only not give a damn for the popluation of the country but he doesn't give a damn for his fellow members of parliament.

The by-eletion in Tiverton and Honiton which has histotically had a strong conservative majority will also be a good indicator to the mood of the country, but if Johnson does survive the conservatives have 12 months to "reinvent" him.