If you assumed that all the payroll vote backed him, that would mean only about 100 of around 250 backbenchers don't want him gone. Which won't feel too comfortable standing in front of them. Though of course it would be very naive if he imagined that all the payroll vote did back him - but that means wondering which of those swearing allegiance don't mean a word they say, including the frontbench regulars who are rolled out to express their devotion when required.

When they slap you on the back it'd be great if you didn’t have to worry whether they've a knife in their hands.