A Breathtaking Analysis of the Long Future
While almost all of us have probably thought with some interest about emerging technologies, and certainly noticed the impact of technologies that were emerging from the labs only twenty years ago, it is probably not quite so obvious from normal perspective that the combined curve of both technological emergence and information itself is on a curve that grows exponentially and does so on an exponential rate increase of acceleration. In other words, the normal predictive habit is to extend the current rate of change into the future ( a linear extrapolation) but the actual rate of change itself is growing exponentially, not just linearly, so the impact of future change is subject to serious underestimation on these fronts (information and technological growth).
One of the most interesting extensions of these points has been posted by the remarkable inventor and analyst Ray Kurzweil at this site.
Kurzweil, in the short span of his life so far, has brought us amazing advances in musical synthesis, optical character recognition, and voice recognition -- all of them extremely valuable advances in their respective fields -- plus more fundamental advances in the field of neural networks and AI in applications.Although some of his extended estimations may seem far-fetched, especially if you disallow his tight coupling between information, computation and person, it makes a terrific read. Some may even say inspiring. It also provides a good argument to continue preserving the best of our best ancient songs in every way we can, although Kurzweil doesn't mention that. Reminds me of a planet called Tern, in a galaxy far, far from here. (:>))
Enjoy.
Regards,
Amos