The thing with studying history -- natural or any other kind -- is that inquiry begins with evidence (e.g., a bunch of tattered letters in a long-sealed file box, or a weird new finch), and continues through searching for and examining more evidence. Any speculation that is not briskly confirmed by evidence gets dumped, or the other historians will laugh and point, and stop inviting the speculator to symposia.

And that, gentlemen, is simplicity.