> Filk,

MaJoC, *please* .... I thought for a moment that you were considering my favourite form of (de)composed folksong.

> regarding stories and science ideas [ ... ] Jules Verne also had a
> good track record

There's a skipload of near-miss predictions (anyone else remember James Blish's "spindizzies"?), and an all-but-unbounded load of outright tosh (most of pulp SF and fantasy); and that's only the lucky few who got published. We remember those who hit the jackpot; don't forget that the people who made money most reliably during gold rushes were the ones selling shovels and wheelbarrows, not their customers.