> The view from the UK is so pessimistic.

It reminds us right-pondians too much of some more-painful-than-somewhat episodes of our own recent history, which we neglected to do enough about till it was far too late. It doesn't help that our papers thrive on using scary headlines to increase their sales.

> And wrong.

I really, really hope so. All we can do from this distance is worst-case planning for potential fallout .... and that last word was chosen carefully: "Si vis pacem, para bellum", an' all that.