... So who suffers most political stress from a total and violent economic decoupling? Xi’s tightly controlled China; or Trump’s febrile, restless America, where 100m consumers live on maxed-out credit cards and zero savings, acutely vulnerable to a price spike in day-to-day goods, with no safety margin if they lose their jobs?
Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, says China is “playing with a pair of twos”, which is one way to describe its stranglehold over critical minerals and much of the resource base of the 21st century hi-tech economy.
“The US civilian economy is totally disorganised and has no coherent plan if China cuts off rare earth supply,” said Jack Lifton, chairman of the Critical Minerals Institute.
China has already restricted exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite over the last two years, and has now widened the list.
This stranglehold is no accident of the free market or geography. China has pursued a strategic policy to knock out rivals via predatory dumping and compelled its own smelting companies to overbuild refining capacity.
As is by now well known, it has gained 90pc control over the rare earth supply chain needed for robots, semiconductors, aviation, magnets, radar, electric vehicles, 5G & 6G wireless, power electronics, you name it ...