I would agree with your "made up shit" scenario as often as I might agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene. Whatever you do to educate yourself is better than nothing, so I agree with that, as long as you have the means to avoid becoming cult-like.
Will the Supreme Court agree with Trump tariffs or find them illegal like the lower courts? Its not like sports betting where there are reasoned odds. It may be a matter of extortion or actual constitutional interpretation.