Great thread. Some very good info here, but keep in mind that there are hundreds of little variables.

One MAJOR variable is that if a vintage instrument sells for a HIGHER than market value price, in some public place (Ebay etc.) look for the market value to go up generally. It's human nature ain't it? Rather than laugh at some Japanese millionaire for getting "taken", most sellers will just up the prices to see if someone else will pay that kind of money.....and if they can wait long enough...someone will.

Another thing to always keep in mind is that most musicians will scrape along at less than twenty grand a year, so for them to buy a five grand guitar is a huge decision. A CEO who played three chords in University 23 years ago can buy a 20 thousand dollar guitar with no sweat. THAT'S the market that Gibson (have you SEEN some of their hilariously 'over the top' new models?) Martin, and the top hand builders are dealing with now.

In the meantime, a vintage Guild is still within range of most, and Larrivee, Martin and Taylor make fine lower priced instruments. The best thing however is that a beginner has a HUGE choice now. Seagull, Simon and Patrick, Godin, and the other Quebec-built instruments are fine values.

My first guitar was a KAY!! Ughhh!

Rick

.....but my second was a Goya (mmmm good)