There is too much cynicism about the "they will never change" in regards to the north.

Things have changed tremendously in the north since the first IRA ceasefire in 1994. The difference, to those on the ground in the north, is like night and day.

As someone said, the sectarian killings of civilians by loyalists is a tactic used, particularly during the run up to marching season, to provoke retaliatory violence from the republican community. One of the worst killings (in terms of potential for republiclan retaliation) was the murder of the three Quinn brothers in the run up to Drumcree a few years back. This does hold at least that potential for retaliation from republicans this year, because of the clearly orchestrated British loyalist (in terms of the paras) and unionist (in terms of the politicos) campaigns to see the GFA wrecked during this year's marching season.

I just read the most disgusting report in the Irish Times. obel prize winning First Minister David Trimble, claims the murder of the Antrim teenager was the work of republican drug lords.

It really is inconceivable not to see this, in conjunction with the shenanigans going on behind closed doors with the Parades Commission, the Northern Ireland office and the RUC, as being orchestrated pressure being brought to bear on Sinn Fein for their recent electoral victories.

On the political front, unionist politicians force the crisis with the Assembly. The SDLP, terrified of losing its majority status as the north's largest nationalist political party (there is that status quo thing again), is the first to call for Sinn Fein to be excluded from the Assembly, despite a considerable mandate from the voters, and considerable movement (as was pointed out by Vincent Browne in yesterday's Irish Times editorial) on decommissioning issues with the IRA since the signing of the GFA.

I'd say, there certainly is something orchestrated going on both in the north and the south to cripple Sinn Fein's gains with voters. Don't underestimate how angry the Irish government still is over the whole Nice fiasco, and Sinn Fein's participation in the NO campaign.

I'd say, this all coming to a head at once, to push the IRA over the brink, and retaliate by breaking the ceasefire. It is the only hope for the Irish and British government, as well as the pro-Agreement parties in the north, to destabilize and undermine Sinn Fein's stunning victories and growth in political party clout north and south.