The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #39362   Message #559166
Posted By: Wolfgang
26-Sep-01 - 09:27 AM
Thread Name: AMERICAN ATTACKS**PART ELEVEN: Long Haul
Subject: RE: AMERICAN ATTACKS**PART ELEVEN: Long Haul
Troll,
there are more means than either diplomacy or outright war. Bribe the accomplices, undermine the financial basis of the organisation, promise economic help to states for turning against terrorists, support the internal enemies of the Taleban, of Saddam,...), economic blockade of states harbouring terrorists, single below war level surprise military operations against top level terrorists including Bin Laden, clandestine operations including murder in single cases without doubt,...

My personal position is not that war is always bad (I think it nearly always is, but:) for I still see no alternative to war e.g. against the Nazis then. I'm an opportunist, for I do not think in terms of 'is war justified', but in terms of 'what will be the consequences of war or nonwar'.

Will Bin Laden be caught (dead or alive) after a war? Most probably yes (and quicker than without). Will his organisation be unable to repeat the New York atrocities. Probably yes, for a few years. Will there be new Bin Laden's if he is dead or in jail? Probably more so after a war. Will blind but determined hatred agaisnt the USA, Israel and The WEST as amply documented in Bin Laden's writings persist or increase after a war. I fear, there'll be much more of this state of mind after a lost (from their perspective) war against The WEST. In the worst case, a war will multiply the number of men that have nothing to lose but their lifes that are filled with utmost hatred and that are glad to sacrifice themselves in suicide attacks.

The worst single consequence from a war will be the destabilisation of Pakistan (look at the violent anti-American demonstrations there these days; about one third of the officers in their army are said to sypathise with the Taleban; some Mullahs have openly preached for the overthrow of the government). Then a country with nuclear weapons might turn fundamentalist and the 'Islamic' bomb might (not openly, but) in silent collusion come into the hands of a new terrorist organisation. The number of deaths in New York will pale in comparison to that.

I see only Powell (of the top names) thinking in these terms and I am always glad when he tries to dampen a bit the war mongering faction. When Bush says things like 'dead or alive' and 'who is not with us is against us' that might sound good at home, but the impact of such phrases abroad is very counterproductive.

Wolfgang