Even if this person is who Ritchie and Mick and Susan think (s)he is, the person is still in the sort of quandary in which many of us have found ourselves at one time or another. Guessing at the person's identity is pointless, and dismissing his/he dilemma as a "load of shite" only worsens the problem by affirming the person's fear that (s)he will be hurt if (s)he shows up at a Gathering. Avoiding the soap-opera aspect of the situation, and offering supportive advice to whoever it is, would be more helpful... and more in the "spirit" that is supposed to exist here (so I've read, anyway).

I have a 3-D friend whose recently-ex-girlfriend attends the same monthly music-party that he and I do. He handles the hurt by arriving close to the time she usually leaves, and by joining a jam in a different room of the host's house, so contact is limited and usually only in passing. Certainly it's better than staying away completely and missing out on the fun with the people he does get along with! Hope this helps a bit.