I think we still agree, but are talking about many different things here.
One, (I can't speak for Wolfgang...and won't...but...) the explanation directed to BWL was simply that, one explanation, with a lot of roooooom in the numbers.
Two, if you were to attempt a meaningful study of people and planes, you would have to somehow take into account other factors such as proximity to the event, possibly an estimation of unknown events, some kind of weighting of the importance of these factors...and even then your "conclusions" would only be meaningful in an appropriate arena with everyone using the same vocabulary. I don't think this is what the original discussion was. I'm reminded of the attempts to quantify economic laws. You can get some pretty wild conclusions when you try to oversimplify a complex situation and talk about it in the press. But there is nevertheless value in making a model, studying it and trying to understand things.
Three, oops...gotta go.